http://www.sportinglife.com/football/championship/brighton-and-hove-albion/news/article/366/9627120/football-league-verdict-from-the-sky-bet-traders
Ciekawa analiza na półmetku rozgrywek.
Bournemouth and Ipswich are the surprise top two in the Sky Bet Championship. Can they last the distance to finish in the automatic promotion places?
Richard Evison: I really fancy Bournemouth to last the pace, though it may prove a lot tougher for Ipswich. The Cherries have a very good set up under Eddie Howe and a squad that he trusts to play the type of
football he wants to see. I have a feeling the lack of strength in depth may catch up with Mick McCarthy’s side though they should be able to hang on to a play-off place.
Stuart Dallimore: I think Bournemouth are the real deal and you get the feeling they’ll run through walls for Eddie Howe. Callum Wilson is the crown jewel of an exceptional collection of attacking players and you expect them to score 2 or 3 every game at the moment. They’re currently 15/8 to lift the trophy and I can’t argue too much with that at the moment as I think they are best team in the Sky Bet
Championship. In my opinion it’s more of a surprise to see Ipswich up at that end of the table.
Chris Spicer: Bournemouth certainly can, their firepower shows no sign of disappearing but I have doubts about Ipswich. As impressive as it is, Daryl Murphy’s current 17-goal tally has a feeling of ‘drought on the horizon’. Tyrone Mings, their young defender would be a big loss if he moved up into the
Premier League, as many expect him to.
Who will win promotion to the Premier League? The latest odds!
The three clubs relegated from the Barclays Premier League last season – Norwich, Cardiff and Fulham – have failed to hit their stride. Can any of the trio get amongst the contenders?
1
B'mouth 48 2
Ipswich 47 3
Derby 45 4
M'boro 43 5
Watford 41 6
Brentford 40 7
Norwich 37 8
Wolves 37 9
Blackburn 35 10
Sheff Wed 34
SD: Although I struggle to see any of these three making any sort of title challenge I could see Norwich being around the playoff positions come the end of the season (which is annoying having backed them to win it pre-season). Fulham would have to do something special to get into contention and a promotion charge next season is the best they can hope for. All three are far too inconsistent to really do much this season, though, unfortunately.
RE: The only one I can realistically getting involved in the promotion shake-up are Norwich. The Canaries are full of goals and if they can tighten up at the back a top 6 finish should be theirs with ease.
CS: Norwich just lost manager Neil Adams but a new coach here could certainly push the Canaries up the table, if their new gaffer can get two of Grabban, Hooper and Jerome firing then they can challenge. Fulham have too much work to do despite improving drastically under Kit Symons, whilst Cardiff’s off field turbulence looks to be a problem.
Blackpool are 1/25 to be playing their football in Sky Bet League 1 next season. Who will join the Seasiders in the relegation places?
SD: There are a few sides down there you wouldn’t have expected pre-season; namely Wigan, Fulham and Brighton. I think that all 3 of these should be able to stay up. Leeds are in rea trouble and they’re not exactly filling their team with the type of players you’d want in a relegation battle. At a big price though one team who has over-performed for the first half of the season has been Charlton. They’re currently 8/1 for relegation and it wouldn’t surprise me too much to see them to go tumbling down the league in the second half of the season.
RE: Of the sides down there at the moment you have to fancy Brighton and Wigan to improve and find their way out of it. Millwall appear to be dropping like a stone and Ian Holloway is going to have his work cut out if they are to avoid the drop. The team I really fear for are Leeds. The side look as though they really lack confidence and you wonder if there is enough experience in it to drag themselves out of the trouble they are in.
CS: There are plenty of good sides down there but Millwall and Rotherham look to be the weak links, Ian Holloway’s Lions are winless in ten and that sort of run rightly makes them 5/4 second favourites for the drop.
There’s plenty of odds out there for the rest of the Championship season. Where’s the value?
SD: Brighton are a better side than their league position suggests and I think they’re worth a bet to finish in the top half of the league at 6/1.
RE: I like the look of Middlesbrough for the league at 4/1. They have a really strong squad and with goals from Patrick Bamford I am sure they will be in the title run in come the end of the season.
CS: I’ll stick to a market I’m confident on, Middlesbrough will keep Aitor Karanka out of the clutches of local rivals Newcastle, with a strong and experienced backline at this level and firepower coming from Jelle Vossen and Chelsea loanee Patrick Bamford, 4/1 about them winning the league looks nice.
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Bristol City, Swindon, Preston and MK Dons are battling it out at the top of League 1. Who will be in the top two when the music stops?
SD: MK Dons are a team the punters really love at the moment and I have to agree with them. I have been fooled by them in past seasons and had my fingers burned backing them to get promoted/win the league however I feel they can do it this year. They have arguably the best player in the league in Dele Ali, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him move to a big club in summer.
RE: It is really tough to split the top four, but I will go for Preston & MK Dons. North End’s manager Simon Grayson has plenty of experience of promotion from this league. MK Dons at times have torn teams apart in the division and just need to gain a little more consistency as they certainly have the quality in the squad to gain automatic promotion.
CS: Bristol City moved for Fulham striker Matt Smith after concerns about ‘burnout’ for ten goal striker and talisman Aaron Wilbraham, I expect them to continue to make the running. Preston are well placed and their quality is undoubted, especially after a 2-0 defeat of Norwich, in the FA Cup, former Leeds striker Beckford has joined and will be a constant thorn in the side of defences at this level.
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No side has been cut adrift in the League 1 relegation zone. Who’s the best bet to go down?
SD: Of the bunch of them down there I would want to be on Gillingham. I don’t like them at all and they’re a decent enough price at 5/6 to go down.
RE: With four sides going down it is hard to see Crewe and Crawley staying up. At the prices Gillingham at 5/6 look a good bet to go down, though their pending appointment of manager is obviously crucial to this bet.
CS: Yeovil have a real problem in front of goal, scoring only 19 in 23 games and there will be a real feeling of ‘after the lord mayors show’ after their FA Cup defeat against Manchester United. Gillingham are one of the weaker sides in the league defensively and are currently in a quandary after sacking the vastly experienced Peter Taylor their next move in their hunt for a manager is crucial.
There are plenty of contenders for promotion out of League 2. Where’s the value?
SD: Southend are the best bet at the prices. I rate them as one of the top three sides in the league and certainly see them being up there come the end of the season.
RE: At the current prices I’d take Southend. They have been up there consistently all season and have a manager in Phil Brown who has the full backing of his players. The shrimpers sit sixth at the minute and well within touch of the top 3 automatic promotion places. They have one of the best back lines in the league, and with League 2 being a relatively low scoring division this should see them competing for a top three spot all year.
CS: I think Bury will fly up the table in the coming weeks, manager David Flitcroft is relatively new to management after serving as a number two to hugely successful Rochdale manager, Keith Hill. They have experience and players Ryan Lowe and Jim McNulty will be crucial to propelling them up the table, 5/2 promotion is surely too big.
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Hartlepool are 1/8 to be relegated to the Vanarama Conference. Who is your pick to join Pools in the bottom two?
SD: They’re the worst team in the league but I don’t think Dagenham are much better! They’re currently 7/4 to join them for relegation. There are however two teams I think could be worth chancing on at big prices, Morecambe are available at around 20/1 and whilst they’re currently sitting in the top half of the table I expect to see them drop down the league as the season goes on. The other I like at a bigger price is Mansfield at 9/1. They’re not too far above the relegation zone and worth a small bet at those
odds.
RE: Accrington and Morecambe are always well backed to be relegated out of the
football league but both have already amassed at least 30 points and should be safe. Tranmere had a bad start but seem to be getting their act together with Mickey Adams steering them clear of trouble and it’s a similar story for Carlisle with Keith Curle. I feel that Dagenham are the second worst side in the division after Hartlepool and I wouldn’t argue with their current price to face the drop.
CS: Portsmouth are only six points clear of the drop zone and given their awful form, 33/1 seems a fair bet, they are currently on a run of one win in nine games. Manager Andy Awford is under serious pressure and he needs to trim his squad size, which could see them lose some of their most influential players.
Finally, what’s the best bet for the rest of the season from any of the three divisions in the Sky Bet Football League?
SD: I really fancy Southend’s chances of Promotion, they’re a backable price and I think they’re one of the top sides in the league. If you’re after something bigger than the 13/8 available though I would suggest backing York for a top half finish at around 7/2. They are much better than their league position suggests in my opinion.
RE: I really like the look of Chesterfield to finish in the top six in League 1 at 9/2.
CS: Chesterfield to finish in the top six at 9/2, 20-goal striker Eoin Doyle can continue his excellent scoring form and if they can improve their under-pressure backline then there is no reason why they can’t beat any team in this wide open league.
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