Techniki stosowane przez Oddsmakerów do wystawiania kursów

[paulattryda]

Interesuje mnie jakich technik / sposobów / heurystyk imają się oddsmakerzy do szacowania prawdopodobieństwa.
Nie chodzi mi o tak banalne sprawy jak zamiana szacowanego prawdopodobieństwa na kurs, ale o samo szacowanie.
Z pewnością korzystają ze statystyk, ale czy tylko? Być może ktoś z Was zna jakieś artykuły lub książki na ten temat?

 

[edi8]

Calculating odds is a science:

http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/value-betting-academy/learning-centre/calculation-of-odds-probability-and-deviation/
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How bookmakers create their odds
http://www.bettingarbitrage.eu/odds-maker.html
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How do Bookmakers set their odds?
http://www.wincomparator.com/en-gb/services-tips/faq/going-a-little-further-when-betting-online/what-are-the-other-betting-methods-available-on-bookmakers-websites-how-do-bookmakers-set-their-odds-.html
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We start with easy example how bookmakers compute odds:
http://hockey-history.com/betting/probability-and-odds-computing/
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Maciej Jarowek is a betting consultant for AsianConnect88.com:
My model here is based on nearly 9,000 international match results over an eight-year period. The information and the effects on the probability of a team winning a match are:

• Venue - home/away or neutral. A team is more likely to win if at home;
• Distance from capital city to game location. A team is more likely to win the shorter the distance travelled (by fans and the team itself);
• Difference in world ranking between the teams. A higher ranked team is more likely to win;
• Change in world rankings for each team during the previous 12 months. An improving team is more likely to win;
• Type of match, namely: major tournament (World Cup or confederation championship), minor tournament (other FIFA- sanctioned one), qualifier or friendly. Better teams take major tournaments more seriously;
• Past match results. For each game, I use the previous eight results for each team (on average a national team plays eight matches in a 12-month period). In addition to the results, I know the world rankings for each of the eight opposition teams at the time of the game.

http://eandt.theiet.org/magazine/2010/08/predicting-football.cfm
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http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00036840701728799

 

[paulattryda]

O to chodziło ???? Masz +dzięki!